Dubai Off-Plan Hits 71% of Sales in Record H1 2026

H1 2026 headline numbers

As Arabian Business reported on 26 July 2026, Dubai's real estate sector recorded 87,800 transactions in the first six months of the year, with a combined value of AED291.7bn ($79.4bn). Both headline metrics improved sharply year-on-year: transaction volume was up 16 per cent on H1 2025 and total sales value rose 14 per cent over the same period. The figures place Dubai's property market on a trajectory that is widening, not narrowing, in terms of both deal count and aggregate capital deployed.

Off-plan dominance and population growth

Off-plan property accounted for 71 per cent of all real estate transactions during H1 2026 — a figure that underscores how firmly pre-completion buying has become the default mode for participants in this market. Underpinning that demand is a demographic reality: approximately 121,000 new residents moved to Dubai during the same period, providing a structural foundation for continued housing absorption.

Looking further ahead, more than 31,000 residential units are scheduled for delivery by 2030, representing eight per cent of total new residential supply. That pipeline figure matters to buyers assessing how much competition — or choice — will exist at the completion end of the market over the coming years.

Ultra-prime and branded residence surge

At the top of the market, H1 2026 set a new record for the first half of any year: 296 home sales above $10m were recorded, generating $5.1bn in total value. The frequency and scale of these transactions reflect demand that extends well beyond regional buyers.

The branded residence segment sits at the intersection of that ultra-prime appetite and the broader off-plan trend. Dubai currently has 64 completed branded residential developments, with 87 more in the pipeline. Branded homes command an average 64 per cent premium over comparable non-branded properties — a premium that, according to MERED, the market continues to sustain. MERED describes Dubai as the world's leading market for branded residences.

MERED's ICONIC Residences: a live construction benchmark

For international buyers who want a concrete data point on where active development stands, MERED's ICONIC Residences Design by Pininfarina in Internet City has reached approximately 125m in height and Level 22. Completion is scheduled for Q3 2027. The project is a useful reference for buyers tracking the pace at which branded off-plan commitments are being converted into physical structures in Dubai.

What this means for international buyers

Several dynamics in the H1 2026 data deserve careful attention from buyers evaluating Dubai from outside the UAE.

• Off-plan is the market, not a subset of it. At 71 per cent of all transactions, off-plan buying is no longer a niche strategy — it is the primary mode of participation. International buyers comparing Dubai with other global markets should factor in that the majority of deal flow, pricing discovery, and developer competition is happening before keys are handed over.
• The branded premium is quantified, not assumed. A 64 per cent average premium for branded homes over non-branded equivalents is a striking figure. Buyers should assess whether a specific branded project's pricing already reflects that premium in full, or whether comparables in a given submarket are priced differently.
• Population growth is a demand floor, not a ceiling. The arrival of approximately 121,000 new residents in a single half-year period provides a structural argument for sustained housing demand. Whether that translates into the specific product type or location a buyer is targeting is a separate and project-specific question.
• Ultra-prime volume signals liquidity. A record 296 transactions above $10m in one half-year suggests that the market for high-value assets has genuine depth. For buyers at that price point, the ability to exit — not just to enter — is a meaningful consideration, and transaction frequency is one proxy for it.
• Pipeline scale cuts both ways. More than 31,000 units scheduled for delivery by 2030 represents significant new supply. Buyers should weigh the appeal of a growing, building city against the possibility of increased competition among units at the point of completion and beyond.

The data reported by Arabian Business paints a market that is expanding in volume, value, and product sophistication simultaneously. For international buyers, the H1 2026 figures provide a credible, quantified baseline — one worth interrogating at the project and submarket level before committing capital.

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